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Archive for the ‘Daily Kos’ Category

Scozzafava’s 15 Minutes Extended Indefinitely

November 6, 2009

A new entry in the Urban Dictionary:

Scozzafavaed (Pronounced: skoʊzəfavəd) -verb

  1. Purged of moderation, e.g., within in a Congressional district
  1. Inadvertently revealed internal chaos, e.g., within in (sic) a political party
  1. Adj., Doomed due to popular support of the GOP electorate

“Dude, you see Glenn Beck talking about how our congressman supports indoctrinating us in the ways of socialism through paper money last night?

The only thing missing is an image to go with it — might I suggest the following:

Nono, the Goposaur


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Weiner Withdraws Single Payer Amendment

November 6, 2009

Taking one for the team, Rep. Anthony Weiner has, in agreement with Speaker Pelosi, withdrawn his single payer amendment:

“I have decided not to offer a single payer alternative to the health reform bill at this time,” says Weiner in a statement. “Given how fluid the negotiations are on the final push to get comprehensive health care reform that covers millions of Americans and contains costs through a public option, I became concerned that my amendment might undermine that important goal.”

His decision is a tactical one, but it may nonetheless disappoint progressive activists and elected officials who, at the very least, want to put members on the record, and see single-payer given its day in the sun.

The “fluidity” of the negotiations is in large part due to the continuing push by Stupak and his abortion-foe colleagues to make the legislation even more hostile to women and reproductive rights. In the horse-trading world of rules, this can make it easier for leadership not allow any. The abortion fight is still apparently the main issue to resolve. Nice that these men are willing to hold up legislation that could benefit millions of Americans to make the political point that they want to control women’s lives.

In terms of Weiner’s move, the biggest tactical mistake made by Dems in this debate was not using single payer as the starting point for negotiations from the left. It made no sense in terms of politics. It made no sense in terms of policy. But there you have it. The sort of silver lining for singel payer proponents is that, while the current bill will do a lot to provide coverage to a lot more people, healthcare reform will be far from finished in this country. There will be more chances in the near future to enact more sweeping reforms. Once we get past the hurdle of doing it once, we’ll just have to keep pushing for more.


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Cheers and Jeers: Rum and Coke FRIDAY!

November 6, 2009

From the GREAT STATE OF MAINE…

Sorry, I’m still laughing my ass off at Tom Tancredo’s little baby hissy fit. (Mean old blogger…you made former congressman cry.) While I regain my composure, please…enjoy some late night snark:

“Voters in the state of Maine voted no to gay marriage, but yes to medical marijuana. That’s right—people in Maine believe marriage should be a sacred institution between a really stoned man and a really stoned woman.”
—Conan O’Brien
-
“Some people in Connecticut are upset that Joe [Lieberman] now opposes the public option. Namely, the 64 percent of people in Connecticut who support a public option. But remember, Joe’s party is ‘Connecticut for Lieberman,’ not ‘Lieberman for Connecticut.’ Big difference. You see, Joe’s a true independent. He’s independent of political parties, and he’s independent of his constituents. I say, stick to your principles, Joe. And as soon as you can, let us know what those are.”
—Stephen Colbert
-
“A new study found that women’s faces age and wrinkle just like their mothers. The study was conducted by the American Society of Wrong Things to Say to Your Wife.”
—Jimmy Fallon
-
“It’s interesting what former presidents do when they leave office. Bush is now working as a motivational speaker. And if you want to be motivated, who better to turn to than the guy who invaded the wrong country and started a depression?”
—David Letterman
-
Bill O’Reilly: I’ll call the race right now: Hoffman wins.
Sean Hannity:  Doug Hoffman to ride a tidal wave of support all the way to D.C.!
—Fox Conservative Opinion Channel
-
“This weekend, President Obama declared a national emergency in response to the growing threat of swine flu. … In response to Obama’s declaration, the Republican leaders this morning came out in support of the swine flu.”
—Jimmy Kimmel

And please fling some poo at the biggest bullshit peddler of the ‘09 elections, courtesy of The Daily Show’s research team:

Former Bush press secretary Ari Fleischer—November 3, 2009: It’s a real significant check on Barack Obama’s first year in office. I don’t think anyone can minimize what it means to the president.
Anderson Cooper:  The White house will say these are local elections about local issues. Do you buy that?
Fleischer: No.
-
Fleischer in the White House briefing room 8 years ago—November 5, 2001: You have to take a look at off-year elections as local elections, primarily. I think there’s a pretty universal view on that. … Typically these kinds of off-year elections are reflective of local events, local politics.

And the man still has a license to operate a motor vehicle.

Come tip my jar. I give you stale candy corn. Your west coast-friendly edition of Cheers and Jeers starts in There’s Moreville… [Swoosh!!] RIGHTNOW! [Gong!!]


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Late afternoon/early evening open thread

November 6, 2009

Coming up on Sunday Kos ….

  • Devilstower will look at Karen Armstrong’s new book, The Case for God, and what it has to say about the place of religion in public and private life.
  • DarkSyde will interview a real life character — scientist/businessman/activist — right out of a Robert Heinlein sci-fi novel.
  • As he watched the passage of Question 1 in Maine, Steve Singiser remembered the final days of the campaign for Proposition 8 in his home state, where a conversation with his seven-year-old son gave him a lot of hope. On Sunday, he will recount that awkward dialogue, and think about what it means for the future of same-sex marriage.
  • DemFromCT will look at this week’s H1N1 trends, news and politics.
  • After Tuesday’s vote on marriage equality in Maine, some are suggesting that New Hampshire might be the next place civil rights get taken down. Laura Clawson will investigate those stories: Reality or hype?


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Chickenhawk Tancredo storms off set after Markos confronts him on veterans health care

November 6, 2009

A few minutes ago on The Ed Show, Tom Tancredo tried to make the case against government health care by claiming that the Veterans Administration is unpopular with U.S. military veterans. The only problem for him was that he was up against Markos…who is one of those veterans, unlike Tancredo, a pro-Vietnam War chickenhawk who got a 1-Y deferment.

When Markos pointed out that Tancredo was (a) wrong about the Veterans Administration and (b) not qualified to speak for veterans, Tancredo exploded in anger, demanding an apology. Markos did not oblige, and Tancredo stormed off the set.

Watch:

Update: Join the discussion in phriendlyjaime’s recommended diary, LOL – Kos just made Tancredo take his ball and go home on TV.


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Economists Urge Passage of House Bill

November 6, 2009

Economists from some of the nation’s most respected institutions have an answer to the Blue Dogs and ConservaDems who keep saying that healthcare reform with a solid public option is just going to be too expensive for the country: bull puckey.

In an open letter [pdf] the economists write:

Successful health care reform is vital to the nation’s fiscal and economic future. The legislation the House will vote on in the coming days will guarantee security of coverage, limit the costs of care, create incentives for improved quality of care, and set us on the path towards sustainable economic growth. In short, the House health reform legislation takes the steps necessary to promote our economic health.

Specifically, the bill:

  • Reduces the deficit by over $100 billion in the first 10 years, and continues to reduce the deficit in subsequent years, as judged by the Congressional Budget Office.
  • Takes initial steps to “bend the cost curve,” and thus might lead to even larger cost savings than official estimates suggest.
  • Covers nearly all American citizens and legal residents.

We urge House passage of the legislation, which provides a historic opportunity to realize the long-delayed goal of significant health care reform.

Signed,

Dr. Henry J. Aaron, The Brookings Institution
Dr. Mike Chernew, Harvard University Medical School
Dr. David Cutler, Harvard University
Dr. Judy Feder, Georgetown University, Center for American Progress Action Fund
Dr. Dana Goldman, University of Southern California
Dr. Jonathan Gruber, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
Dr. Len Nichols, The New America Foundation
Dr. Alice Rivlin, The Brookings Institution
Dr. Meredith Rosenthal, Harvard University School of Public Health
Dr. Jonathan Skinner, Dartmouth College
Dr. Katherine Swartz, Harvard University School of Public Health

Of course, if CBO reports don’t convince them, who knows if more experts piling on will convince them. But it tells the voters something–any Democrat who says he or she is voting against this bill because it’s just too expensive is either too dumb to understand what countless experts are telling them, or is lying.


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"Populists"

November 6, 2009

One of the great services Rachel Maddow has done over the past several months is to show the powerful–and exceedingly wealthy–interests propping up the supposedly populist tea-parties. While the people participating probably feel like they’re in the midst of some great groundswell of populist, grassroots movement, the sad truth is that their anger and resentment (and no small amount of racism) is being exploited by these corporate bastards in an attempt to protect their own billions.

Matt Yglesias has more on this from yesterday’s display:

David Koch and Charles Koch of Koch Industries, for example, are #379 and #388 on the Forbes 400 list. They’re also major donors to a number of right-wing causes, including Americans for Prosperity, which is chaired by David. And as several AFPers were willing to discuss with my colleague Lee Fang yesterday, that Koch money helped pay for 40 buses to bring people to the tea parties free of charge, doughnuts, signs, etc.:

It really makes all those predominantly old, white, angry people look even more like sheep. They pledge allegiance to FOX News and scream about keeping the government’s hands off their Medicare, and Rupert Murdoch and the Koch’s laugh all the way to the bank.

Meanwhile, their queen Michele Bachmann, who trots out the fiction that yesterday’s melee was organic and “unplanned,”is using yesterday’s freak-show to fundraise.

Update: You can watch the Rules committee hearing on hcr broadcast on CSPAN 2 or on the House webcast. And David Waldman is at the hearing courtesy of Chairwoman Slaughter’s staff, who ensured that a blogger would get one of the five ten media spots available. You can follow his tweets from the hearing.  - BarbinMD


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Republican Priorities

November 6, 2009

Why do they hate America?

When it’s a choice between strengthening the Patriot Act, or showing up for the Tea Party Patriots, what’s a GOP lawmaker to do? We’ll give you one guess…

Several Republican members of Congress yesterday blew off votes on the signature anti-terror legislation of the post 9/11 era to attend Michele Bachmann’s Tea Party rally against health-care reform.

Reps. Steve King of Iowa, Trent Franks of Arizona, Randy Forbes of Virginia, Jim Jordan of Ohio, and Louie Gohmert and Ted Poe of Texas all took time out yesterday for the “Super Bowl of Freedom,” as Bachmann has called it. And all missed votes in the House Judiciary committee on Republican-sponsored amendments to the reauthorization of the Patriot Act — measures that would have toughened the Act, but narrowly failed. Those votes took place, a committee staffer confirmed, between noon and two — the very time when Republican lawmakers were rallying the Tea Party troops on the Capitol steps.  

… a few hours later, the bill that King actually had a chance to help shape was voted out of committee by 16-10 — with King, Gohmert, and Forbes, as well as three other Republicans, again absent for the final vote. Republicans on the panel blasted the legislation, saying it would hinder law enforcement and intelligence agencies in fighting terror. But had a few more of their own showed up to vote, instead of playing to the Tea Party crowd, perhaps they would have been able to fix some of what they didn’t like about it.

Don’t they realize that when they stand with a bunch of lunatics, the terrorists win?


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Bill Owens a "Yes" Vote on HCR

November 6, 2009

Blue Dogs afraid to vote yes on a popular healthcare reform bill, take note. Your newest colleague, from a purple district, is going to make his first vote a significant one.

Rep. Bill Owens (D-NY) can be counted on as a “yes” in this weekend’s expected vote on the House Democrats’ health care bill, announcing his support in a press release.

“This legislation will reform the insurance industry and provide increased access to affordable healthcare without taxing healthcare benefits, cutting Medicare benefits or raising taxes on the middle class, and that is exactly the direction we need to go,” said Owens. “There are still changes I would like to make, including raising the payroll exemption for small businesses, but like I said last week, there is a fundamental need for reform and we must act with a sense of urgency.”

And on a related note, neither Chris Christie or Bob McDonnell have said how they’ll vote on the bill … oh, never mind.


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Midday open thread

November 6, 2009
  • IL-Sen: The Sun-Times razzes Rep. Mark Kirk for his move to the Right as he seeks to shed his “moderate” label in order to grab teabagger support.

    In June, he disavowed his crucial vote in favor of a climate bill. Then it came out this week that Kirk wants Palin’s support. She is coming to town later this month to appear on the Oprah Winfrey show.

    We appreciate the political realities Kirk faces. To win, he must appeal to a broad spectrum of voters, including the most conservative.

    Those pressures forced another moderate Republican out of a special election for a New York congressional seat just last weekend.

    Leading national conservatives went after the moderate, with many, including Palin, rallying behind one opponent, Conservative Party candidate Douglas Hoffman.

    Knocking off the moderate initially looked like a win for conservative Republicans.

    But the final outcome offers a cautionary tale for Kirk. In Tuesday’s election between a Democrat and conservative Hoffman, the Democrat prevailed in a district that has been a Republican stronghold.

    For Kirk, courting conservatives may help him solidify a primary win; he is the presumed front-runner. But it also could easily cost him a general election win in Democrat-leaning Illinois.

  • Michelle Bachmann learned her math from Karl Rove.

    Bachmann went on the Mark Levin show last night and claimed that the total number of attendees was “20,000 minimum.”

    “This was word of mouth, this was word of mouth, Mark,” she said excitedly. “And it was minimum 20,000. minimum.” [...]

    The source for this figure is unknown. MSNBC cited Capitol Police yesterday afternoon putting the number at 3,000-3,5000. Later MSNBC revised it up to 4,000, also citing police sources. Politico estimated 10,000, based on unclear sourcing.

    Source? Who needs a source to make shit up? I heard it was 2 million. Minimum.

  • Who knew “freedom” was so ugly?

    In the front of the protest, a sign showed President Obama in white coat, his face painted to look like the Joker. The sign, visible to the lawmakers as they looked into the cameras, carried a plea to “Stop Obamunism.” A few steps farther was the guy holding a sign announcing “Obama takes his orders from the Rothchilds” [sic], accusing Obama of being part of a Jewish plot to introduce the antichrist.

    But the best of Bachmann’s recruits were a few rows into the crowd, holding aloft a pair of 5-by-8-foot banners proclaiming “National Socialist Healthcare, Dachau, Germany, 1945.” Both banners showed close-up photographs of Holocaust victims, many of them children.

    Then, socialist communist doctors saved the life of a teabagger. Ackward!

  • My other big brainchild, SB Nation, turns six today.
  • Of course conservative white southerners are whining about being held down by “the man”. It’s what they do. Whine.

    But regardless of the reason for the pattern we noted in 2007 and again now, even the appearance that Democrats are biased against southern white men is a potential problem for the party generally, and for President Obama’s goal of transcending old racial divisions.

    Nothing transcends old racial divisions like nominating a disproportionate number of white southerners. And given the geographic shifts in partisan politics the last few years, it won’t be that much of a problem for the Democratic Party. White southerners have long since abandoned the Democratic Party, and somehow, we’ve survived.

    But we’ve really come a long way. It wasn’t too long ago that conventional wisdom dictated that only southerners could win the presidency, and that Obama made a huge mistake when he didn’t pick a southerner as his running mate. It turns out that the rest of the country is much larger.

  • Nate on independent voters:

    Too often in “mainstream” political analysis, once it is pointed out that independents have swung in one or another direction, the analysis stops. The pundit inserts his own opinion about what caused the independent vote to shift (”Obama’s far-reaching proposals and mounting spending”, says the Washington Post), without citing any evidence. It’s a neat trick, and someone who isn’t paying attention is liable to conclude that the pundit has actually said something interesting.

    But in New Jersey, there’s literally almost no evidence that the Democrats’ agenda had anything to do with Jon Corzine’s defeat. Voters who cited a national issue were more likely to vote for Corzine, and voters who cited a local one, the Republican Chris Christie.

    In Virginia, the evidence is certainly a little stronger, insofar as the national agenda may have affected the lopsided turnout (the electorate which turned out Tuesday had voted for John McCain by 8 points, a near-reversal of the actual results). Even there, however, the quarter of the electorate that cited health care as their main issue went for the Democrat Deeds 51-49. And in NY-23, which was supposed to have been the ultimate smackdown of the Democrats’ agenda, the Republican Conservative candidate unexpectedly lost.

    Part of the problem is that ‘independents’ are not a particularly coherent group.

  • Ben Nelson being Ben Nelson: Bad Economy Means We Should Wreck Economy, Destroy Planet, Let Health Care Languish.
  • The big green ad on the site today makes a good point — make sure you make your voice heard on health care and call your congresscritter to make health care reform happen. Today is the day, folks. No procrastination on this one.

    Your phone calls are ESPECIALLY important if you are represented by one of these potential holdouts:

    Harry Mitchell (AZ-05), Gabrielle Giffords (AZ-08), Marion Berry (AR-01), Dennis Cardoza (CA-18), Jim Costa (CA-20), Betsy Markey (CO-04), Laura Richardson (CA-37), Allen Boyd (FL-02), Suzanne Kosmas (FL-24), Dan Lipinski (IL-03), Melissa Bean (IL-08), Joe Donnelly (IN-02), Brad Ellsworth (IN-08), Baron Hill (IN-09), Ben Chandler (KY-06),  Michael Michaud (ME-02), Stephen Lynch (MA-09), James Oberstar (MN-08), Ike Skelton (MO-04), John Adler (NJ-03), Harry Teague (NM-02), Michael McMahon (NY-13),  Scott Murphy (NY-20), Dan Maffei (NY-25), Eric Massa (NY-29), Bob Etheridge (NC-02), Heath Shuler (NC- 11), Steve Driehaus (OH-01), John Boccieri (OH-16), Kurt Schrader (OR-05), Jason Altmire (PA-04),  Chris Carney (PA-10), Tim Holden (PA-17), Stephanie Herseth-Sandlin (SD-AL), Jim Cooper (TN-05), Bart Gordon (TN-06), Chet Edwards (TX-17), Glenn Nye (VA-02), Tom Periello (VA-05), Rick Boucher (VA-09), Brian Baird (WA-03), Jim McDermott (WA-07), and Adam Smith (WA-09).

    You know the teabaggers are letting their voice be heard. We can’t sit idly by and let the Right out-do us on this front. Make sure these congresspeople hear from the true majority. Clicking on the ad, AFSCME makes it really easy to call in.

  • Happy Friday everyone! Have a great weekend.


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Republican John Boehner Hasn’t Met Single American Who Wants Public Option

October 2, 2009

Minority Leader John Boehner, to Politico:

“I’m still trying to find the first American to talk to who’s in favor of the public option, other than a member of  Congress or the administration” said Boehner, whose sole recent foray into a public discussion of health care reform was a tea-party-style event in Ohio a few weeks back. “I’ve not talked to one and I get to a lot of places,” he told reporters at his weekly press availability. “I’ve not had anyone come up to me — I know I’m inviting them — and lobby for the public option.”

Just ponder for a moment about what it means if John Boehner isn’t lying — because as we know, it’s wrong for politicians to lie and they almost never, ever do — but that he really, honestly has never met anyone who was in favor of the public option during this entire debate.

Let us all pause to reflect the sheer magnitude of the insular, self-inflating bubble that would be required of Boehner to never meet or talk to a single American that thought that way, when 2/3rds of the country do, and the majority of people in his own state do. He must roll to and from work in a giant, government-provided hamster ball.


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NJ-Gov: Still tightening

October 2, 2009

Research 2000 for Daily Kos. 9/28-30. Likely voters. MoE 4% (8/3-5 results)

Favorability
            Favorable   Unfavorable   No Opinion
Corzine (D)    37 (35)     53 (56)      10 (9)
Christie (R)   47 (44)     36 (29)      19 (27)
Daggett (I)    26          12           62

Corzine is up a net 5 points, though still suffers from an ugly /-16 favorability rating. Christie is in better shape, at +11, but that’s down four points since early August. Looking at the crosstabs, we find that Christie’s numbers among independents are down eight, from 47-24 to 47-32 (compared to Corzine’s 29-61, up five since August). Those trends may appear modest, but they appear to be driving a narrowing in the race:

Corzine (D)  42 (40)
Christie (R) 46 (48)
Daggett (I)   7  (-)
Undecided     5  (9)

Note, we didn’t poll Daggett in early August, so this isn’t a perfect apples to apples comparison. The results speak for themselves — the numbers are moving in Corzine’s direction, and while the results are technically within the margin of error (making it a statistical tie), other polling has consistently shown a small Christie lead. A Monmouth University poll (PDF) released yesterday had Christie leading 43-40-8. A Quinnipiac University poll released Wednesday gave Christie a 43-39-12 lead. Both those polls also showed a narrowing race.

An interesting data point — of the 5 percent who are undecided, the vast majority are voters of color. While just one percent of white voters are undecided (and they break for Christie at a 55-35 clip, 25 percent of African Americans, 12 percent of Hispanics, and 13 percent of “other” remain undecided. All three of those categories are solid Corzine demographics. The governor leads black voters 71-4, leads Hispanic voters 56-31, and leads “other” 57-31. If Corzine can turn them out at these percentages, the bulk of that five percent undecided would slot into his column.


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Weekly Tracking Poll: The Big Trend is No Trend

October 2, 2009

Research 2000 for Daily Kos. 9/28/2009-10/1/2009. All adults. MoE 2% (Last weeks results in parentheses):

FAVORABLEUNFAVORABLENET CHANGE
PRESIDENT OBAMA53 (54)39 (38)-2
PELOSI:35 (34)57 (57)+1
REID:32 (31)58 (57)0
McCONNELL:19 (18)63 (64)+2
BOEHNER:13 (12)61 (63)+3
CONGRESSIONAL DEMS:39 (38)55 (57)+3
CONGRESSIONAL GOPS:18 (17)69 (70)+2
DEMOCRATIC PARTY:41 (40)49 (50)+2
REPUBLICAN PARTY:23 (22)66 (68)+3

Full crosstabs here. This poll is updated every Friday morning, and you can see trendline graphs here.

With the exception of a incremental slip of a couple of points for President Obama, this week’s edition of the State of the Nation Tracking Poll tells us very, very little. The rest of the political creatures that were tested (alas, except for Harry Reid, who stood pat) saw their net favorabilities improve by a fairly insignificant 1-3 points. What makes the changes more insignificant is that they were devoid of any real pattern. The Congressional Democrats improved slightly more than the Congressional Republicans. But the Republican Party improved slightly more than the Democratic Party.

Two things are keeping Obama’s numbers at bay, it seems. One is that Independents are in a “wait and see” mode, even as Obama re-consolidates his Democratic base. Three weeks ago, when Obama was beginning his big post-speech surge, his favorabilities with Independents stood at 60%. Three weeks later, that figure now stands at 52%. What is interesting, however, is that the percentage of Independents whose view of the president is unfavorable has actually held steady at 36%. The percent who aren’t sure has tripled from 4% to 12%. Quite possibly, these were people who were jazzed by his speech (remember, his net favorables among Independents leapt 6% in that week alone), and are now waiting to see what comes of it.

The second thing keeping Obama’s numbers at bay is a factor that has been little mentioned in the traditional media, but is so glaring that it needs to be mentioned–the South. In future weeks, Daily Kos is considering disaggregating our numbers on our polling scoreboard (featured on the front page) by the South versus the rest of the nation. The differences are truly that stark.

This week, President Obama’s favorability rating in the South stands at 25%, with 70% having an unfavorable view. While the net fav/unfav has been this wide before, this is the lowest positive favorability for the President in the South that we have seen all year.

While it might be tempting to limit this Southern analysis to President Obama (and draw some predictable-but-not-entirely accurate conclusions), the fact is that it runs a bit deeper than that.

Consider the regional breakdown on the DK/R2K variation of the “Congressional Ballot Test.” When voters are asked whether they want to see more Democrats elected to Congress or more Republicans, Democrats have a national lead of six points. But look how it breaks down regionally:

Net Advantage on “Generic Ballot Test”, By Region, 10/1/09:
National: Democrats +6

Northeast: Democrats +43
Midwest: Democrats +11
West: Democrats +8
South: Republicans +26

Of course, the Republicanization of the South is nothing new. One of Obama’s biggest feats in 2008 was winning a small handful of Southern states, the first non-Southern Democrat to do so in two generations.

There can be little doubt, however, that the political schism between the South and the rest of the nation has deepened with the election of Barack Obama, to the point where we stand now. It is a fascinating trend, which has been made more apparent because it is really two trends happening at once–the collapse of Southern support for Democrats, and the equal impact of the collapse of the GOP everywhere else: According to this tracker, the GOP has a net favorability of +14 in the South. In the rest of the nation, their “next-best” region is the West, where the GOP stands at a net favorability of -60.

This exacerbates the discrepancies between GOP performance in the South and elsewhere.


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Health Care Friday

October 2, 2009
  • From the WaPo:

    The long quest to reform the nation’s health-care system entered uncharted legislative territory early Friday when a key Senate panel wrapped up work on its bill and House and Senate leaders prepared for historic floor debates.

    The regular season is over, and the playoffs are starting.

  • TheFatLadySings interviews Jeff Bingaman here.
  • From the Partnership to Fight Chronic Disease, Say ‘yes’ to health reform is a national campaign to feature individuals in favor of preventing chronic disease. Health reform isn’t just how about much the insurance companies get.
  • Donald McNeil in the NYT:

    Swine flu is now widespread across the entire country, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention announced Thursday as federal health officials released Tamiflu for children from the national stockpile and began taking orders from the states for the new swine flu vaccine.

    Also, as anecdotal reports and at least one poll showed that many Americans are nervous about the vaccine, officials emphasized that the new shots were nearly identical to seasonal ones, and said they were doing what they could to debunk myths about the vaccine.

    CDC weekly updates (Friday by noon) can be found here.

  • David Brown in the WaPo:

    In a reminder that the new strain of H1N1 influenza may not be as benign as originally thought, federal health officials reported Thursday that 100 pregnant women infected with the virus were hospitalized in intensive care units in the first four months of the outbreak, and 28 have died.

  • Hartford Courant:

    Depending on how widespread and how severe it becomes, a swine flu
    pandemic could pose challenges that hospitals have rarely, if ever,
    seen. So far, hospital officials say, the illness has largely been an
    outpatient issue, something that most patients can recover from without
    even visiting the doctor. But they have plans in case it gets worse.

    A report released Thursday suggests that those plans could be especially
    important for Connecticut hospitals.

  • What’s your excuse?


    5 top reasons for not getting a flu shot examined by Consumer Reports

    1. Excuse: “I want to build natural immunities.” (63 percent)

    Reality: This was the top reason respondents gave for not getting a seasonal flu vaccine last year. Among those who are unsure if they will have their children vaccinated this season, 69 percent said they wanted to build their children’s natural immunities. That’s somewhat understandable but misses the most important aspect of immunity—avoiding disease. When your body encounters a virus or a vaccine, it creates antibodies that help fight the disease, and the ability to call on those antibodies provides protection after the flu is gone. Vaccines result in the production of the same antibodies that an infection does without the substantial risks that come with disease.

    “I can’t imagine anything more tragic than a parent exposing their child to a disease and to subsequently have their child develop a life-threatening infection,” says William Schaffner, M.D., chairman of preventative medicine at the Vanderbilt University School of Medicine in Nashville, Tenn., and president-elect of the National Foundation for Infectious Diseases. “Exposing oneself to a ‘wild’ infectious agent exposes you to a risk of potentially serious consequences. It may be a small chance but believe me, it’s real. You don’t know that your child, or you, won’t be one of the people to develop a grave infection.”

  • For protection against flu:

    Surgical masks may be just as good as N95 respirators for protecting healthcare workers against the flu, according to a randomized clinical trial whose findings conflict with the only previous study.

    CDC is expected to revise their advice next week.


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Job Losses Far More than Expected. U6 Hits 17%

October 2, 2009

Another 263,000 jobs were lost in September, the Bureau of Labor Statistics announced this morning, far above the consensus of experts. Last month, the revised figures show, there were 201,000 jobs lost. The unemployment rate rose from 9.7% to 9.8%.


Click for a larger version of this Calculated Risk chart of job losses in the 11 post-World War II recessions.
The latest figures reversed what had been a steady downward trend in job losses since spring. In the 21 months since the downturn began, there has been a net loss of 7.6 million jobs. Currently 15.1 million Americans are officially out of work. Another 11.4 million are unemployed because their unsuccessful search for a job has discouraged them, or they are underemployed because they want full-time work and can only obtain part-time hours.

The consensus of experts surveyed by Bloomberg last Friday had put the expected loss at 170,000. But after the privately compiled ADP National Employment Report released Wednesday contained higher than expected job losses for September, the 84 experts tweaked their estimates, which ranged from 100,000 to 260,000. That boosted  their consensus – the median of all their estimates – to 175,000. This still fell far short of the BLS figures.

The once-all-but-ignored alternative measure of unemployment and underemployed – U6 – rose from 16.8% to 17%. That figure includes jobless Americans who have become discouraged and those working part-time but desire full-time jobs, a total of 26.5 million. Without the government’s economic stimulus, which was fiercely opposed by Republicans, the situation would be far worse. But the latest figures give more credibility to those economists and other observers who have long questioned whether the stimulus as currently constituted can sustain a recovery.

In another much-watched statistic showing weakness in the labor market, the average workweek for production and nonsupervisory workers fell back to 33 hours, a record low.

The number of long-term unemployed – workers who have gone jobless for 27 weeks or more rose – by 450,000 to 5.4 million. In September, 35.6 percent of unemployed persons had been jobless for 27 weeks or more.

The official unemployment rate for whites was 9.0 percent for September, for blacks 15.4 percent, for Hispanics 12.7 percent, and for Asians 7.4 percent. The rate for women of all races was 7.8 percent, for men 10.3%. Count in the discouraged and the underemployed, and those breakdowns are far worse, too.

Most economists and other expert observers believe that the quarter just ended and the quarter that we have just begun will show growth, perhaps in the 3% to 4% range. In the past that’s usually meant a rise in hiring. But in recovery periods following the previous two recessions, there’s been a disconnect: an extremely weak labor market. Those recessions were comparatively mild. What we’ve seen since December 2007 is the weakest employment market since the Great Depression. And it’s not likely to go away without additional stimulus no matter what the deficit hawks in both parties have to say.

Chances are that unemployment will continue to rise to 10% or beyond by year’s end and well into 2010. This is in great part because companies currently are utilizing their production capacities at very low levels. Even if their delivery orders increase, they can get more productivity from current employees. All this could easily mean structurally high unemployment for a long time – that is, several years – because employers have seen no need to hire as many new workers.

If this, plus other observations about spending resistance among consumers and debt overhang pan out, the United States could be in for its third consecutive oxymoronic “jobless recovery.” That might mean higher GDP and higher profits but long-lasting pain for poor and middle-class Americans already suffering the longest economic downturn since you-know-when. As New Deal Democrat pointed out regarding the disappointing ISM report at the bonddad blog Thursday, there are other statistics contributing to worries that we may be in for a repeat of the unemployment troubles that followed the two previous recessions in 1990-91 and 2001. The downward shift in ISM numbers could be a one-month fluke, or not.

Advance Realty and Rutgers produced an issue paper last month, America’s New Post-Recession Employment Arithmetic. Lots of charts and graphs, a summary of the present and predictions of the future:

• The combination of a weak economic expansion sandwiched between two recessions (2001, and 2007–2009) produced what will be a lost employment decade. As of August 2009, the nation had 1.3 million (1,256,000) fewer private sector jobs than in December 1999. This is the first time since the Great Depression of the 1930s that America will have an absolute loss of jobs over the course of a decade.

• To put this new millennium experience into perspective, during the final two decades of the twentieth century, the nation gained a total of 35.5 million private-sector jobs. During the current decade, America appears destined to lose more than 1.7 million private-sector jobs.

• Because of the severity of the 2007–2009 recession employment losses (–7.0 million private-sector jobs as of August 2009), the United States faces a significant employment deficit as it confronts the realities of a post-recession future.

[...]

• The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics projects the nation’s labor force to grow by approximately 1.3 million persons per year between 2006 and 2016. Therefore, the nation has to add 1.3 million total jobs per year— consisting of private-sector and government payroll employment as well as contract (nonpayroll) employment—simply to accommodate a growing labor force [as consequence of population growth].

• This 1.3 million annual increase in the labor force means that in terms of private-sector payroll employment, the nation has to create an estimated 920,000 jobs per year.  Adding this to the actual private-sector job losses accumulated during the 20 months (to date) of recession equates to an August 2009 employment deficit of 8.6 million jobs. Given conservative estimates of further employment declines (even if the recession ends in the third quarter of 2009) and the continued increase in the labor force, the nation’s employment deficit could approach 9.4 million private-sector jobs by December 2009.

• Erasing this deficit will require substantial and sustained employment growth. Even if the nation could add 2.15 million private-sector jobs per year starting in January 2010, it would need to maintain this pace for more than 7 straight years (7.63 years), or until August 2017, to eliminate the jobs deficit! This is approximately 50 percent greater than the length of the average post–World War II expansion (58 months).

Of course, the study doesn’t deal with the real job deficit. All those discouraged and part-time workers. The stagnant wages. The dwindling benefits. Nor, of course, is there any mention of the perniciousness of the long-term upward transfer of wealth. Nor, most important of all, how to generate a sustainable global economy within a sustainable environment that isn’t bludgeoned by reckless overconsumption.

But, under the study’s limited definition, the job deficit could be eliminated somewhat sooner than it suggests. While one must look askance at the quality of some of the 20.6 million private sector jobs created during Bill Clinton’s two terms  – which covered four-fifths of the longest economic expansion in U.S. history – there were 2.57 million jobs created in each of the years he was in office. If that could be replicated, the narrowly defined job deficit could be overcome in a mere five years, that is, by January 2015. Just in the time for the next recession.


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Today in Congress

October 2, 2009

In the House, courtesy of the Majority Leader his-own-damn-self:

Mr. Speaker, I ask unanimous consent that when the House adjourns today it adjourn to meet at 10:00 a.m. tomorrow and further when the House adjourns on that day it adjourn to meet at 12:30 p.m. on Tuesday, October 6, 2009, for morning hour debate.

In the Senate, courtesy of that Majority Leader his-own-damn-self:

Mr. President, I ask unanimous consent that when the Senate resumes consideration of  H.R. 3326 on Tuesday, October 6, the following first-degree amendments be the only amendments remaining in order to H.R. 3326 other than any other pending amendments, if not listed…

So what does this mean? Well, at the time I sat down to write this, the House had been out for the day for several hours, with no schedule announced for today, which would usually be the case if they were going to be doing any voting. They’re meeting, as you can see, but with no schedule. That said to me that they’d be in pro forma session today, especially since the Senate sounded like it wasn’t going to be meeting at all.

What difference does it make that the Senate isn’t meeting? Let’s take a quick peek at the definition, linked above, of the pro forma session:

A daily meeting of the House or Senate during which no votes are held and no legislative business is conducted. The session “in form only” is held for purposes of meeting the 3-day rule in the Constitution. It requires each House to gain the permission of the other for recesses longer than 3 days. When the permission is not forthcoming, or not requested in time, the affected chamber convenes briefly with hardly anyone in attendance [the opening prayer, routine announcements, and sometimes short non-legislative speeches are conducted], and then adjourns.

Friggin’ Constitution!

There’s a little bit of committee business happening today. The schedule still tells us that the Senate Finance Committee has a meeting on the books for today, but the news tells us that they stayed up late last night to finish up, so they probably won’t meet today. They’ll convene again next week to vote on reporting their bill out. Or if they operate on Baucus Standard TimeTM, maybe next February.

House

CommitteeDateTimePurposeView Online?
Joint EconomicFri., 10/29:30 a.m.The Employment Situation: September 2009Yes

Senate

CommitteeDateTimePurposeView Online?
FinanceFri., 10/210:00 a.m.Business meeting to continue consideration of an original bill entitled “America’s Healthy Future Act of 2009″Yes


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Your Abbreviated Pundit Round-up

October 2, 2009

Got an opinion? These people do.

Opinionator:

The Battle of DADT is over, and the mopping-up operations are ready to begin.”

That’s Mark Kleiman’s assessment of the effort to end Don’t Ask, Don’t Tell, the Clinton-era law that “requires homosexuals in the services to keep their sexual orientation secret.”    

What prompted Kleiman’s assertion is a new essay — “The Efficacy of Don’t Ask, Don’t Tell” — in a military journal. If that sounds like a thin reed, consider these additional facts. The publication, the Joint Forces Quarterly, is considered “the Joint Chiefs’ ‘flagship’’ security studies journal,” and the chairman of the Joint Chiefs, Adm. Mike Mullen, reviewed the essay before it was published. In addition, the essay won the the Secretary of Defense National Security Essay Competition for 2009 and its author, Air Force Col. Om Prakash, now in fact works in Robert Gates’ office.

Paul Krugman:

Stocks are up. Ben Bernanke says that the recession is over. And I sense a growing willingness among movers and shakers to declare “Mission Accomplished” when it comes to fighting the slump. It’s time, I keep hearing, to shift our focus from economic stimulus to the budget deficit.

No, it isn’t. And the complacency now setting in over the state of the economy is both foolish and dangerous.

Charles Babington:

Dems taunt GOP: Where’s your health care plan?

David Brooks:

There is no power behind the media curtain for talk jocks like Rush Limbaugh and Glenn Beck. They claim to represent a hidden majority but, in fact, represent a mere niche.

You wish, David. They represent a good chunk of the Republican party… the Palin and birther voters. Don’t just denounce the shock jocks, denounce the niche.

The rise of Beck, Hannity, Bill O’Reilly and the rest has correlated almost perfectly with the decline of the G.O.P. But it’s not because the talk jocks have real power. It’s because they have illusory power, because Republicans hear the media mythology and fall for it every time.

See health care. Your beloved party has real problems, and the symptoms should not be mistaken for the cause (which is bankrupt ideas and failed conservatism.)

Speaking of bankrupt ideas, Charles Krauthammer: Barfle, snorf, WAR!! Dribble, IRAN!! Foam, spittle, FRENCH FRIES!!

Troy Senik:

Today, however, California has become a warning sign. Beset by economic disaster and political paralysis, the state is in the midst of a systemic crisis. And while the meltdown has certainly been accelerated by the recession of the past two years, its causes involve two decades of poor judgment, reckless mismanagement, and irresponsibility. How California got into this mess has a lot to teach the rest of the country; how it gets out will say a great deal about America’s prospects.

From a new magazine called National Afairs.

Oops almost forgot this gem:

Steven F. Hayward:

Outlook Preview
Is Conservatism Brain-Dead?

See Brooks and Krauthammer.


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Open Thread and Diary Rescue

October 1, 2009

Tonight’s Rescue Rangers are shayera, blank frank, ItsJessMe, dopper0189, BentLiberal, jennyjem and grog.

jotter gives us the day’s High Impact Diaries: September 30, 2009, while sardonyx has Top Comments: The Prolific Commenters, January through September 2009.

Shamelessly self promote your diary or pimp for a friend in this Open Thread!


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Polling and Political Wrap-Up, 10/1/09

October 1, 2009

After a couple of quiet days on the trail, today is such an avalanche of campaign news that it is time to debut a feature I expect to see a lot more of as we head to campaign season–some of the items will just be linked to at the bottom with a minimal explanation.

NJ-Gov: Another Pollster Confirms Tightening Gubernatorial Race
Yesterday, Quinnipiac turned a few heads by showing a tightening race in New Jersey, as GOP nominee Chris Christie falls to earth, and falls into the grasp of incumbent Democrat Jon Corzine. Monmouth University, partnering with Gannett, confirms the trend today (PDF file) by showing Christie with just a three-point lead over Corzine (43-40-8) among likely voters. Among registered voters, the race is tied. In other campaign news, Jon Corzine received an expected-but-welcome endorsement from the state’s State Nurse’s Association today.

PA-Sen: Sestak Gains on Specter; General Election A Toss-Up
A new Quinnipiac poll out of the Keystone State has to give incumbent Senator Arlen Specter (R-turned-D) some pause as he contemplates re-election. What was once a thirty-two point lead for the incumbent in the Democratic primary against Congressman Joe Sestak is now just nineteen points (44-25). What’s more–the two men have almost identical trial heats with Republican Pat Toomey (Specter trails by one, Sestak by three). Sestak has considerably more upside, however, as his name recognition (29%) is only a fraction of both Toomey’s (46%) and Specter’s (88%).

NY-23: GOP With Modest Lead in Three-Way Special Election Matchup
Republican state legislator DeDe Scozzafava has a lead, albeit a fairly tenuous one, over Democratic political rookie Bill Owens and Conservative Party candidate Doug Hoffman, according to the first independent poll in the race by Siena College (PDF File). Scozzafava leads with just 35% of the vote, with Owens trailing with 28% of the vote. Hoffman, who is getting a lot of wingnut love in this race (the Club for Growth endorsed him this week), runs third at a respectable 16% of the vote. Two other private polls, it must be noted, had Hoffman much closer to the field.

NH-Sen: New Poll Gives GOP Slight Lead To Retain Gregg’s Senate Seat
In the first public poll in a little while on the open-seat battle to replace outgoing GOP Senator Judd Gregg, Republican Attorney General Kelly Ayotte has a seven-point lead over Democratic Congressman Paul Hodes (41-34), according to American Research Group (or as we like to call them around here…ARG!).

DE-Sen: Castle and Biden Would Be Close Battle, According to Ras
If the “Clash of the (Delaware) Titans” happens to develop between former Governor and longtime Congressman Mike Castle and state Attorney General (and VP progeny) Beau Biden, it will be a close one, at least according to the folks over at Rasmussen. Ras has Castle leading Biden by a five-point margin (47-42). Of course, there is at least a chance that one or both of these men will NOT be running for the Senate. Castle, especially, is far from guaranteed to make the race. Anticipating that, Rasmussen also polled Biden versus 2008 GOP nominee (and already announced 2010 candidate) Christine O’Donnell. In that race, Biden led by nine points (49-40).

NY-Gov: Is Romney Tipping Rudy’s Hand?
There are a couple of different ways to read into this nugget of news out of the Empire State: apparently, 2008 GOP presidential contender (and, to many, the 2012 favorite) Mitt Romney will be heading to New York in three weeks to host a fundraiser for 2010 gubernatorial candidate Rick Lazio. This could be seen as a sign that Giuliani is going to eventually demur from seeking the governorship, since Romney would be unlikely to expend a lot of political capital on a candidate who polls show would have little chance of winning the GOP nomination against Giuliani. This could also be a sign that there were some seriously hard feelings about the 2008 presidential race, and Romney feels like giving Rudy a little clip at the knees. It is worth noting that Lazio is a Romney friend, as well as an endorser of the former Massachusetts Governor’s presidential campaign last year.

NV-Sen: Harry Reid Officially Has A GOP Challenger
It has been rumored for nearly two months, but it was finally made official: former Nevada state GOP Chairwoman Sue Lowden is planning to challenge incumbent Democratic Senator Harry Reid for his Senate seat in 2010. Earlier this month, a Daily Kos/Research 2000 poll showed Lowden with a three-point lead over Reid, as the incumbent was struggling to consolidate his base. Lowden is not going to have the GOP nod to herself. State Senator Mark Amodei looks like a go, and Danny Tarkanian (a failed statewide candidate in 2006 best known for being the son of legendary UNLV hoops coach Jerry Tarkanian) is sounding like a candidate, as well.

MA-Sen: Coakley Announces $2 Million Haul in Expensive Dem Primary
It is now becoming evident that the Democratic primary to replace the late Senator Edward Kennedy in the Senate is going to be one extremely expensive proposition. State Attorney General Martha Coakley announced this morning that she had raised over two million dollars in her Senate bid, more than double her expected haul. Meanwhile, Boston Congressman Michael Capuano announced raising over a quarter of a million dollars in just twelve days, adding to the $1 million-plus he already had on hand in his Senate account. With wealthy businessman Stephen Pagliuca and Alan Khazei (who also raised over a million dollars) also in the mix, this will be a very expensive two months, to be sure.

BATTLE FOR THE HOUSE: Both Parties Plot Post-2010 Plans
In an interesting piece by Rothenberg Reports’ writer Nathan Gonzales for Roll Call, he lays out the exhaustive plans that both parties are making to try to maximize their party’s strength when redistricting rolls around after the 2010 elections. Clearly, this is one of the most underreported, yet critical, components of the 2009-2010 election cycle. As Gonzales reports, the groundwork is beginning now, well in advance of both the census and the outcomes of the 2010 elections.

IN OTHER NEWS…….

  • The Vermont GOP gets Lt. Governor Brian Dubie to commit to a gubernatorial bid in 2010. Crisitunity over at Swing State Project thinks that might actually be a boon for the Democrats, despite Dubie being the most high-profile GOP candidate.
  • Russ Carnahan in MO-03 officially gets a challenger in the form of Republican attorney Ed Martin.
  • It’s early yet, and the Democratic primary field is still fluid, but state legislator Bryan Lentz isn’t playing games, announcing a raft of endorsements from local politicos in PA-07.
  • Across the country in OR-05, freshman Democrat Kurt Schrader might have just caught a legitimate GOP challenger, as Republican state legislator Scott Bruun is looking to make a go of it.
  • Carly Fiorina’s hard-right GOP primary challenger for the right to challenge California Senator Barbara Boxer is raising some pretty serious cash.
  • Brendan Nyhan, writing for Pollster, looks at an issue that has been discussed around here, as well: if the GOP makes huge gains in 2010, it will do so despite being one of the least popular parties out-of-power in recent memory.


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When the Public Option is Relative, and other Senate Finance Follies

October 1, 2009

There’s good news and bad news today.

First the bad, let’s get it over with. That politically smart Rockefeller amendment? The one that would have put Senators on the records as to whether they were willing to limit the profits that the insurance companies could get out of the  $465 billion in subsidies this bill is giving to them?

He withdrew it. He said that it was being withdrawn because the CBO hadn’t scored it. I suspect the fact that Bingaman spoke in opposition to it, on the grounds that the underlying bill already prohibits the most egregious industry abuses, had more to do with his withdrawing the amendment than the CBO score. So we don’t know who on the committee is looking out more for the profits of the health insurance companies than the people they insure. All we know is that Bingaman was willing to be the one to shield his colleagues from having to demonstrate their positions with a vote.

So let’s get to the good news, huh? It lies in the plethora of public option “alternatives” that have been bubbling up in the last few days, as Jon at FDL explains:

The fact that White House surrogates keep trying to sell these new “compromises” demonstrates that progressives have successfully entrenched the demand for a public option. Before the fight is finally over, there will be a dozen “compromises” like this from those who are trying to water down the public option and bring it into compliance with White House stakeholder deals. [emphasis mine]

Thanks to the House Progressives, and to an organized and loud external progressive community, the message has finally seemingly gotten through: the bill has to have a public option. Witness today’s statement from Harry Reid, that there will be a public option in the bill that goes to the Senate floor. The devil is always in the details when they start talking about the definition of a public option being “relative,” but at least we’ve gotten to the point where they recognize it has to be there. Progress.

Now for the variety of non public option “alternatives” being floated. First there’s the one that the quote from Jon is referring to, something that Andy Stern has been pushing with Schumer and Wyden:

“I’m in the fourth way option,” Stern said. “If Alabama doesn’t want a public option, they should consider that question. I don’t think the citizens of Alabama will want out. . . . I think we need a public option. I don’t think it needs to be triggered. The question is if there are certain state legislators who think it’s not appropriate for their state, they should have a right in some fashion to deal with it.”

That’s potentially the “Blue State” option, that would have states opt out of the public option rather than Carper’s idea of them opting in. Now, Carper’s idea

[I]n its current form, each state would have the option to:

  1. Participate as grantees in the CO-OP program and apply for seed funding.
  1. Open up that state’s employee benefits plan.
  1. Create a state administered health insurance plan with the option of banding together with other states to create a regional insurance compact.

So states could create public options and band together. The problem from Conrad’s co-ops still exists–how do you get a pool large enough to effectively compete? Conceivably, you could pull together a region, but that’s still going to present a challenge. There are other problems, like putting the onus on state legislatures to act. Jon calls it a trigger for co-ops, and I think he’s right in that. It’s hard to envision further fragmentation of an already confusing as hell and all over the place system by adding in potentially 50 more as a solution.

Why isn’t Carper behind a regular public option (though he did vote for Schumer’s level-playing field)? It’s a familiar answer: there aren’t enough moderate Democratic votes supporting it so I can’t be a moderate Democrat voting for it.

Finally, there’s the Cantwell amendment that did pass, narrowly.

The amendment creates a “federally funded, non-Medicaid, state plan which combines the innovation and quality of private sector competition with the purchasing power of the states,” according to an overview.

It would be available to people with incomes above Medicaid eligibility but below 200 percent of the federal poverty level — a very narrow window. However, Republicans fear — and progressives hope — that once the plan becomes law there will be pressure to expand it.

The plan would not be free. It is based on Washington state’s Basic Health plan, which costs roughly 60 dollars a month, with the remainder of the premium subsidized by the state.

This isn’t a public option either. It’s quite narrow, covering about 75 percent of the currently uninsured. Eleven million uninsured sounds better than 46 million uninsured, but this is incremental, nibbling away at the edges of the problem, not substantive reform. As Jon explains it’s not a bad idea in and of itself. It would be an improvement on the current exchange idea, in which the “government defines the basic health care plan which must be covered, and companies mainly compete on price of premiums and provider network.” That improvement on the exchange, say coupled with Wyden’s Free Choice Act that would open the exchange to everyone, would be helpful.

But it’s not a public option. It’s not a government provided, managed, and overseen program. And it shouldn’t be sold as a public option. We won’t buy it.

Finally, there’s another state development that made it into the chairman’s mark before markup even started, that could be a stealthy Wyden amendment that Ezra calls a state single-payer option:

Essentially, states can ask the federal government for a waiver that allows them to keep the federal funds they’re receiving and do pretty much anything they want with them, so long as the coverage they provide is “at least as comprehensive as required under the Chairman’s Mark” and will “lower health care spending growth, improve the delivery system performance, provide affordable choices for all its citizens, expand protections against excessive out-of-pocket spending, provides coverage to the same number of uninsured and not increase the Federal deficit.”

That could be used for a public option. But it could also be used for single-payer. The potential problem, as Jon Cohn points out, is that a Republican statehouse could use it to ratchet back coverage in existing public programs. But since the amendment doesn’t allow anything to drift beneath the levels envisioned in the bill itself, it’s hard to imagine a conservative state using it to be any less generous than the state would otherwise be.

You know, Medicare for all would have been a helluva lot easier. Again, there’s potential in this, but it’s still giving us an even more fractured system. It and the Cantwell amendment are now in the SFC bill. They are as close to any kind of public option as we’re going to get, but they cannot be confused for a true, robust, national public option. The best that we can get? Only if Dems don’t accept the fact they have the majority, and if they choose to use it, can do much, much more.


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SC-02: Make Rep. Joe "Liar!" Wilson pay for his disrespect

September 10, 2009
Goal Thermometer
Yesterday, Jake McIntyre wrote:

Up until today, Joe Wilson was just another anonymous Southern Republican troglodyte Congressman, unknown to all but the poor people of South Carolina and the most serious horse race junkies.

Today, he’s the hyena who disgraced himself, his party, and the House chamber by screaming “you lie!” like an 8 year-old during the President’s eloquent speech on the most critical challenge facing our nation.

There’s something we can do to let Joe Wilson know what we think of his childish approach to a serious problem — we can help out Rob Miller. Rob is an Iraq War vet — a Marine who came back to South Carolina to try and restore dignity to South Carolina’s Second CD, where Joe Wilson was selling out the district by voting for unfair trade deals and corporate giveaways. Despite being a relative unknown, being outspent by a substantial margin, and a general Republican lean to the district, Rob came within just 8 points of knocking Wilson off in 2008. And we’re lucky to have him running again.

Rob’s a fair trade Democrat who supports the Employee Free Choice Act. He’s a breath of fresh air for a state that desperately needs new leadership.  And we can help him tonight, as the nation sees what an immature loser his opponent is. Let’s chip in to help Rob — with early financial support, and with the notoriety Wilson has brought on himself, we’ve got a chance to help send Joe Wilson packing — and to bring maturity and decency to South Carolina politics.

Since last night, over 2,500 of you have contributed nearly over $90,000 to Rob Miller’s campaign. How about we help push that over $100,000? $150,000?

We’ve spent the entire summer watching the teabaggers drag our public discourse into the mud, spreading fear and lies, calling Obama a Nazi and describing the public option as a communist plot. We’ve seen them accuse us of wanting to kill their grandmothers, and they hysterically fought to “protect” their children from Obama’s “stay in school” speech to students, as if he were a child molester.

And last night, during a Joint Session of Congress, Rep. Joe Wilson adopted the Teabagger tactics and bizarrely thought it a good idea to try and disrupt the President’s address.

As you can imagine, Wilson is becoming the latest conservative hero, joining the pantheon of Joe the Plumber, Sarah Palin, and Michelle Bachmann. But rather than watch in frustration, we can do something about it.

Let’s send a message to the Republican Party that their efforts to debase the political process will cost them, and let’s SERIOUSLY hurt them where it matters. Drop a few bucks into Rob Miller’s “defeat Joe Miller” fund.


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Analysis: public option popular in most Blue Dog districts

September 10, 2009

Nate Silver takes data from our public option polling to perform one of his regression analyses, finds that the two most relevant factors are support for Obama and poverty levels, and concludes:

We can systematize these results by means of a regression analysis that accounts for the Obama vote share and the poverty level in each district. (Technically, we’ll be using a logistic regession, treating each of the voters included in one of these surveys as a separate data point.) This analysis finds that support for the public option nationwide is about 55 percent, against 36 percent opposed, similar results to what I believe to be the most reliable polls on the subject.

What’s more interesting, though, is where we project the public option in individual districts. We find that:

– The public option is estimated to have plurality support in 291 of the 435 Congressional Districts nationwide, or almost exactly two-thirds.
– The public option is estimated to have plurality support in 235 of 257 Democratic-held districts.
– The public option is estimated to have plurality support in 34 of 52 Blue Dog – held districts, and has overall popularity of 51 percent in these districts versus 39 percent opposed.

Nate estimates that in the Arkansas 4th Congressional District, home of Blue Dog Mike Ross — new opponent of the public option (after supporting it earlier this year), that support for the public option would be 49-41. I’ll see about polling the district the next few weeks to see if the analysis holds up. Below is the map Nate created, with public option-supporting districts in Blue, opposing ones in Red.

district map of public option support

Visit the post for district by district numbers.


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Corporations and the First Amendment

September 10, 2009

Back in June, I warned you that the Supreme Court of the United States was set to overturn all restrictions on election-related speech funded by corporations and labor unions.  Rather than rule on the original briefs and narrow question presented to the Court as to the application of the Bipartisan Campaign Reform Act (a/k/a BCRA, or “McCain-Feingold”), the Court asked for new briefing and argument on the broader question of whether a 1990 precedent, Austin v. Michigan Chamber of Commerce ought to be overturned.   This was in the context of a documentary, “Hillary: The Movie,” which was intended to air in video-on-demand and other formats during last year’s primaries, and which was funded by a conservative nonprofit corporation, Citizens United.  (Full background.)

[Austin, as you may recall, held that a state could bar corporations from financing independent ads in support of a candidate's election, arguing that "the unique legal and economic characteristics of corporations necessitate some regulation of their political expenditures to avoid corruption or the appearance of corruption" such that "resources amassed in the economic marketplace [could be used to obtain] an unfair advantage in the political marketplace” because, as the Court has noted: “[t]he resources in the treasury of a business corporation . . . are not an indication of popular support for the corporation’s political ideas. They reflect instead the economically motivated decisions of investors and customers. The availability of these resources may make a corporation a formidable political presence, even though the power of the corporation may be no reflection of the power of its ideas.”]

Well, they had that reargument Wednesday morning — Justice Sotomayor’s first seating with The Nine — and by all accounts, expect Austin to be overturned:

Three Justices — Anthony M. Kennedy, Antonin Scalia and Clarence Thomas — have explicitly urged the Court to overturn the two precedents that sustained congressional limits on campaign financing by corporations and labor unions. Kennedy and Thomas only seemed to reinforce that position on Wednesday; Thomas remained silent, but had given no indication earlier of a change of mind.

That lineup has always put the focus, as the Court volunteered to take on new constitutional questions in the Citizens United case, on the Chief Justice and Justice Alito.  While both have been skeptical in the past about campaign finance laws, supporters of such laws had fashioned an array of arguments they hoped would lead Roberts and Alito to shy away from casting their votes to create a majority to free corporations to spend their own treasury money to influence federal elections.  None of those arguments seemed to appeal to either Roberts or Alito….

Stevens and Ginsburg continually pressed for a narrow ruling, perhaps allowing Citizens United free rein to distribute the “Hillary” movie and relaxing curbs on other non-profit corporations.  Stevens openly touted a brief filed by the National Rifle Association, which proposed — as an alternative to overruling the two precedents — that corportions that get their funding entirely from individual donors be exempted from the spending curbs.  Ginsburg used many of her questions and comments to argue strenuously for treating corporations differently from individuals in political expression.  She remarked: “A corporation, after all, is not endowed by its creator with inalienable rights.”

Justice Breyer commented several times how important it was for the Court to defer to Congress’s judgment about what is necessary to insulate federal politics from wrongful influences.  What, he asked rhetorically, should the Court do about the reality that “people think that their Representatives are being bought”? Wasn’t that a sufficient interest to justify the restrictions, he wondered.  Breyer also questioned whether a ruling all.owing corporate political spending would give businesses more influence in politics than political parties have, because of limits on their campaign financing.

The oral argument transcript is here.  This is the first portion to jump out at me — from Solicitor General Elena Kagan’s defense of BCRA, in her first oral argument before any Court:

JUSTICE ALITO: [W]hat is your answer to the argument that more than half the States, including California and Oregon, Virginia, Washington State, Delaware, Maryland, a great many others, permit independent corporate expenditures for just these purposes? Now have they all been overwhelmed by corruption? A lot of money is spent on elections in California; has — is there a record that the corporations have corrupted the political process there?

GENERAL KAGAN: I think the experience of some half the States cannot be more important than the 100-year old judgment of Congress that these expenditures would corrupt the Federal system, and I think that -

JUSTICE SCALIA: Congress has a self-interest. I mean, we — we are suspicious of congressional action in the First Amendment area precisely because we — at least I am — I doubt that one can expect a body of incumbents to draw election restrictions that do not favor incumbents. Now is that excessively cynical of me? I don’t think so.

GENERAL KAGAN: I think, Justice Scalia, it’s wrong. In fact, corporate and union money go overwhelmingly to incumbents. This may be the single most self-denying thing that Congress has ever done. If you look — if you look at the last election cycle and look at corporate PAC money and ask where it goes, it goes ten times more to incumbents than to challengers, and in the prior election cycle even more than that.

And for an obvious reason, because when corporations play in the political process, they want winners, they want people who will produce outcomes for them, and they know that the way to get those outcomes, the way to get those winners is to invest in incumbents, and so that’s what they do. As I said, in double digits times more than they invest in challengers. So I think that that — that that rationale, which is undoubtedly true in many contexts, simply is not the case with respect to this case.

JUSTICE KENNEDY: But under your position, if corporations A, B, and C, are called to Washington every Monday morning by a high-ranking administrative official or a high-ranking member of the Congress with a committee chairmanship and told to tow the line and to tell their directors and shareholders what the policy ought to be, some other corporation can’t object to that during the election cycle. The government silences a corporate objector, and those corporations may have the most knowledge of this on the subject.

Corporations have lots of knowledge about environment, transportation issues, and you are silencing them during the election.

GENERAL KAGAN: Well -

JUSTICE KENNEDY: When other corporations, via — because of the very fact you just point out, have already been used and are being used by the government to express its views; and you say another corporation can’t object to that.

GENERAL KAGAN: Well, to the extent, Justice Kennedy, that you are talking about what goes on in the halls of Congress, of course corporations can lobby members of Congress in the same way that they could before this legislation. What this legislation is designed to do, because of its anticorruption interest, is to make sure that that lobbying is just persuasion and it’s not coercion. But in addition to that, of course corporations have many opportunities to speak outside the halls of Congress.

JUSTICE STEVENS: One of the amicus briefs objects to — responds to Justice Kennedy’s problem by saying that the problem is we have got to contribute to both parties, and a lot of them do, don’t they?

GENERAL KAGAN: A lot of them do, which is a suggestion about how corporations engage the political process and how corporations are different from individuals in this respect. You know, an individual can be the wealthiest person in the world but few of us — maybe some — but few of us are only our economic interests. We have beliefs, we have convictions; we have likes and dislikes. Corporations engage the political process in an entirely different way and this is what makes them so much more damaging.

CHIEF JUSTICE ROBERTS: Well, that’s not –I’m sorry, but that seems rather odd. A large corporation just like an individual has many diverse interests. A corporation may want to support a particular candidate, but they may be concerned just as you say about what their shareholders are going to think about that. They may be concerned that the shareholders would rather they spend their money doing something else. The idea that corporations are different than individuals in that respect, I just don’t think holds up.

GENERAL KAGAN: Well, all I was suggesting, Mr. Chief Justice, is that corporations have actually a fiduciary obligation to their shareholders to increase value. That’s their single purpose, their goal.

And many here will be intrigued by the implications of this question from Justice Sotomayor:

Going back to the question of stare decisis, the one thing that is very interesting about this area of law for the last 100 years is the active involvement of both State and Federal legislatures in trying to find that balance between the interest of protecting in their views how the electoral process should proceed and the interests of the First Amendment.

And so my question to you is, once we say they can’t, except on the basis of a compelling government interest narrowly tailored, are we cutting off or would we be cutting off that future democratic process? Because what you are suggesting is that the courts who created corporations as persons, gave birth to corporations as persons, and there could be an argument made that that was the Court’s error to start with, not Austin or McConnell, but the fact that the Court imbued a creature of State law with human characteristics.

Some color from Prof. Allison Hayward:

New seat assignments – and Scalia and Thomas get to sit together, Chief Justice Roberts next to Scalia.  Justice Breyer, now on the viewer’s right, demonstrated that he can brace his head in worried angst with his left hand as well as his right.  Idle speculation preceding the argument was that his right hand would dominate, and he would end up addressing Justice Sotomayor, and the wall.  This did not occur, to everybody’s great relief.

[The Court goes Chief in the middle, and then by seniority fanning outwards.  So from viewers' left to right, it's now Alito-Ginsburg-Thomas-Scalia-Roberts-Stevens-Kennedy-Breyer-Sotomayor.]

As for the merits, yes, I’m stalling, because I’m torn.  I would certainly agree that increased corporate spending to influence elections has the potential to seriously distort electoral outcomes in the same ways that spending on lobbying affects legislative outcomes.  But at the same time, I can’t help but cringe at any efforts to chill political speech.  

The Bill of Rights can be pretty clear when it wants to be — the Second Amendment protects the right of “the people” to keep and bear arms; “citizens” have privileges and immunities under the Fourteenth Amendment, and even within the First Amendment “the people” have the right peaceably to assemble.  But there’s no such limitation as to who has “freedom of speech”.  It exists to protect the speaker’s right to speak and our rights as citizens to be informed, and I find much to commend in Justice Kennedy’s dissent from Austin:

[T]he notion that the government has a legitimate interest in restricting the quantity of speech to equalize the relative influence of speakers on elections is antithetical to the First Amendment:

“[T]he concept that government may restrict the speech of some elements of our society in order to enhance the relative voice of others is wholly foreign to the First Amendment, which was designed `to secure “the widest possible dissemination of information from diverse and antagonistic sources,”‘ . . . . The First Amendment’s protection against governmental abridgment of free expression cannot properly be made to depend on a person’s financial ability to engage in public discussion.” Buckley, supra, at 48-49 (citations omitted).

That those who can afford to publicize their views may succeed in the political arena as a result does not detract from the fact that they are exercising a First Amendment right. Meyer v. Grant, 486 U.S., at 426 , n. 7 (upholding First Amendment right to use paid petition circulators). As we stated in Bellotti, paid advocacy “may influence the outcome of the vote; this would be its purpose. But the fact that advocacy may persuade the electorate is hardly a reason to suppress it.”  The suggestion that the government has an interest in shaping the political debate by insulating the electorate from too much exposure to certain views is incompatible with the First Amendment. “[T]he people in our democracy are entrusted with the responsibility for judging and evaluating the relative merits of conflicting arguments.”

Those of you who recall my take on the Supreme Court’s 2008 gun control case should not be surprised that I will say this again:

Sometimes in life (and in law), there are things that we might desire from a policy standpoint — like certain forms of gun control, or restrictions on some election-related speech — which are nevertheless forbidden by the Constitution.  And as liberals — unlike the other guys — we ought not try to pretend that the Constitution doesn’t exist when it gets in the way of our policy preferences.

The answer may not be in limiting the speech of some, but in boosting the speech of others through voluntary public financing of public elections.  Rep. John Larson (CT-01), today:

The hearing before the Supreme Court today is further evidence of how broken our campaign finance system is and how badly we need true reform.  Today, Members of Congress are forced to spend too much time dialing for dollars.  This distracting hunt for campaign contributions takes us away from the real reason we came to Washington – to do the people’s business.

That is why I authored the Fair Elections Now Act – comprehensive reform that would give candidates and Members of Congress alike an opportunity to concentrate on talking to constituents rather than donors and studying issues rather than call sheets.  FENA would be exempt from the constitutional challenges that have been raised against the McCain-Feingold campaign finance reform law.  It would offer candidates the choice of accessing public funds for their campaigns if they reach a certain threshold of support and forego big dollar fundraising in exchange for the sort of grassroots small donor efforts we saw Barack Obama use so successfully in his presidential campaign.

By taking the special interests and corporations out of our electoral process we would put the American people back in charge. We heard that from experts at our hearing on FENA before the House Administration Committee and we’ve seen that example as states around the country have implemented their own Fair Elections systems.  Today’s hearing at the Supreme Court reaffirms my support for the Fair Elections Now Act and I will continue to work to bring the bill for a vote on the floor of the House.


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The Speech: Insta-polls

September 10, 2009

Mark Blumenthal (excerpt of more point) noted how little we learn from an insta-poll of a Presidential speech:

  1. Instant response polls measure only speech-watchers. While the methodologies vary, the most important thing to remember that these surveys aim to sample only those who watch the speech and, as such, are are not intended to represent the views of all Americans. The pollsters will hopefully provide some before-and-after comparisons of the speech audience — showing how viewers felt about health care reform before and after the speech — but those comparisons will involve only the sample of speech viewers. Thus, no one should take any of the numbers they see tonight and make comparisons to full-sample results from previously surveys of all adults or all “likely voters.”  
  1. The audience is usually skewed toward the President’s fans. Remember, not all Americans watch presidential addresses. Out of roughly 113 million television households in the U.S., between 52 and 63 million watched the debates last fall and roughly 53 million watched President Bush’s address on the economic crisis last September. Those are huge audiences, but plenty of Americans still tune out.

In this case, CNN (full .pdf) notes:

18% of the respondents who participated in tonight’s survey identified themselves as Republicans, 45% identified themselves as Democrats, and 37% identified themselves as Independents.

So, what he had was a real chance to address indies. And here’s what was posted at pollster.com:

The first on my radar screen comes from CNN of a survey of people who watched the speech (update: full results now posted). Candy Crowley says, not surprisingly, that the sample “skews heavily Democratic, we think that the Democratic sample in this flash poll is 8 to 10 points higher than in the general population.”

  • 72% say yes, Obama clearly stated his health care goals, 26% say no.
  • 56% had a very positive reaction, 21% somewhat positive, 21% negative
  • Support for Obama’s health care plans jumped 14 points among speech viewers: from 53% in favor to 67%

Democracy Corps has an overnight poll lays it out (click for larger pic):

Obama’s Speech Moves Swing Voters to Support Reform

Significantly, Obama’s speech played well across the political spectrum. Traditionally, voters from the opposite party of the president tend to score consistently low and to create huge partisan divides in these dial tests. That was not the case with Obama’s speech. With just a few exceptions, Republicans held solidly around 50 and even exceeded 70 percent favorability during parts of the president’s speech, giving particularly high scores to Obama’s remarks on not adding a penny to the deficit, creating a health care exchange, protecting Medicare, and reforming medical malpractice. While Republicans in the audience may have viewed this as a partisan speech, those outside of the room clearly did not.

Obama helped himself last night by going over the heads of the media and his brain-dead opposition (the visuals of Joe Wilson’s Billy Crystal/Carol Kane’s Princess Bride imitation – Liar!! – went over very badly, as did Eric Cantor’s texting) directly to the Amercian people.

Good start. It’ll take three days of traditional polling to put this in context, so check back on Sunday and beyond.


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Today in Congress

September 10, 2009

In the House, courtesy of the Office of the Majority Leader:

FLOOR SCHEDULE FOR THURSDAY, SEPTEMBER 10, 2009

House Meets At… 10:00 a.m.: Legislative Business
First Vote Predicted… 10:30 – 11:30 a.m.
Last Vote Predicted… 2:00 – 3:00 p.m.

“One Minutes” (10 per side)

H.R. 965 – Chesapeake Bay Gateways and Watertrails Network Continuing Authorization Act (Rep. Sarbanes – Natural Resources) (Subject to a Rule)

In the Senate, courtesy of the Office of the Majority Leader:

Convenes: 9:30am

Morning Business until 12:30pm with the time equally divided and controlled between the two leaders or their designees. The time during morning business is dedicated for tributes to the late Senator Edward Kennedy.
Following morning business, the Senate will proceed to Executive Session and will resume consideration of the nomination of Cass Sunstein to be Administrator of the Office of Information and Regulatory Affairs, Office of Management and Budget. Senators should expect a vote on confirmation of the nomination tomorrow evening. If all post-cloture debate time is used, the vote would occur around 11:30pm. Senators will be notified when that vote is scheduled.
Finally, earlier today the Majority Leader announced that he may turn to the consideration of the Transportation Appropriations bill following disposition of the Sunstein nomination.

Committee events of note:

  • 9:30am. House Foreign Affairs Committee: Outlook for Iraq and U.S. Policy. Witness: Christopher R. Hill, U.S. Ambassador to Iraq
  • 9:30am. House Select Energy Independence & Global Warming: Roadmap to Copenhagen -Driving Towards Success on International Climate Agreement
  • 10am. House Energy & Commerce Subcommittee on Communications, Technology, and the Internet: Oversight of the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act: Broadband, Part 2
  • 10am. House Financial Services Subcommittee on Housing and Community Opportunity: The World Bank’s Disclosure Policy Review and the Role of Democratic Participatory Processes in Achieving Successful Development Outcomes
  • 10am. Senate Homeland Security & Governmental Affairs Committee: Follow the Money: An Update on Stimulus Spending, Transparency, and Fraud Prevention
  • 2:30pm Senate Appropriations: Business meeting to markup proposed budget estimates for fiscal year 2010 for Defense.
  • 2:30pm Senate Banking, Housing & Urban Affairs Committee: Oversight of the SEC’s Failure to Identify the Bernard L. Madoff Ponzi Scheme and How to Improve SEC Performance
  • 2:30pm. Senate Foreign Relations Committee: Iraq: Report from the Field. Witness: Christopher R. Hill, U.S. Ambassador to Iraq

An unusual occurrence today: the House and Senate schedules take up approximately the same amount of space. Although it should be noted that that’s because the House lists only one bill for the day, and the Senate lists none, but takes a long time not to list any.

The action today, such as it is, will be in committee. Note, too, that they’re making Ambassador Hill testify twice, once on House turf in the morning, and then again in the afternoon on Senate turf. Does it always go that way? No, not always. The House and Senate Veterans’ Affairs Committees meet in a joint hearing today to hear from witnesses from the American Legion. But the nature of the hearings is, of course, likely to be different. Lots of Members are going to want five minutes of video of them questioning the Ambassador to Iraq, or at least to get a chance to grill him a little. The Veterans’ Affairs folks will most likely be doing more listening when the American Legion comes around. But it’s funny to note, anyway. Your government at work.

Full committee schedule appears below.


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